A life source is drying up

In a world where one sixth of the population - one billion people - are still without safe water to drink, and where 5,000 children a day in developing nations die through water-related illnesses ¹, water shortages are likely to be a key factor in curbing growth in many countries.

The United Nations points out that the global population has tripled in the past 70 years and water use has grown six-fold as a result of industrial development and increased irrigation. Less than three percent of all water on the planet is fresh water, yet in the next half-century, we face the challenge of meeting the needs of billions more people. At the same time, concerns about global warming are mounting.

The gravity of the situation has been vividly illustrated in Australia, where seven years of drought have almost dried up the Murray-Darling river and have led to warnings that farmers may not be allowed to irrigate their crops next year unless there is heavy rainfall in the next few months.

Drought hits the economy

The economic strain is already showing. The Australian government is paying farmers USD 1.7 million a day in relief and estimates that the drought cut the country’s growth rate by one per cent last year. Meanwhile, the population continues to grow, increasing the demand both for water and for agricultural produce that depends on irrigation systems.

Where’s the water?

The problem is being mirrored elsewhere. Major rivers in the United States, Spain and Portugal are similarly affected. Coastal cities in Latin America are finding it difficult to expand freshwater supplies, and many urban centres in Africa face serious problems because of a combination of rapid growth in water demand and unusually low rainfall in recent years. In March this year, the World Bank urged governments in North Africa and the Middle East to speed up improvements to water resources. It said many countries in the region already faced full-blown crises in meeting water demand, and forecast that water availability per person would drop by half by 2050.

If the pattern is repeated across the globe, the prospect of tensions between farmers and urban populations must inevitably grow. As the UN reports, many urban centres have already outgrown their capacity to provide adequate freshwater supplies for their needs, and resources are being drawn upon faster than the natural rate of recharge. Lack of rain can only exacerbate the problem.

A surge towards the cities

And the expansion of the world’s cities and urban areas continues relentlessly. Estimates are that by 2030, the urban population will reach five billion – 60 percent of the global population. To borrow computer language, the megacities of today are forecast by the UN to become the gigacities of tomorrow. By 2015, the five largest will probably be:

• Tokyo, 35 million (out of a national population of 127 million)
• Mumbai, 22 million (out of a national population of 1.3 billion)
• Mexico City, 21 million (out of a national population of 115 million)
• New York-Newark, 20 million (out of a national population of 330 million)
• Sao Paulo, 20 million (out of a national population of 210 million)

More urban but less urbane.

Apart from water, other natural resources will come under increasing pressure from relentlessly growing emerging economies, putting further strain on an already fragile environment. For example, to feed its voracious appetite, China’s demand for copper, steel and aluminium has almost trebled in the past decade.

Throughout the world, oil demand is forecast to grow by 50% by 2017. While the search for alternative fuels will undoubtedly intensify, those countries that control the supply of oil will be even more acutely aware of the power they hold in the modern world.

Source:

1) Web site of WaterAid, an international non-governmental organization dedicated to the provision of safe domestic water, sanitation and hygiene education for the world’s poorest people, www.wateraid.org