Cargo fraud: Time to step up supply chain security

Costing as much as $35bn each year, cargo theft is big business. It is also a growing problem at a time when supply chains are under considerable strain. According to the US National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), the incidence of theft increased 27% in 2024 and is predicted to rise by another 22% in 2025. In Europe, the number of cargo theft incidents reported to the TAPA EMEA Intelligence System in January was up 18% year-on-year, while the value of stolen shipments was 42% higher.

Low-risk, high reward crime

Since the pandemic, criminals have woken up to the potentially lucrative opportunities presented by cargo theft. With shipments potentially valued in the millions of euros, cargo theft is seen as a relatively low-risk, high-reward criminal enterprise. A stolen shipment of perfume in France in November 2025 was valued at almost $2.5 million while electronic goods stolen from a vehicle in Belgium in October resulted in a loss of more than $15 million.

The cost of living crisis and high inflation has made cargo more attractive to criminals, increasing both the value and demand for goods, ranging from luxury items and consumer electronics to everyday essentials. According to CargoNet and TAPA data, food and household goods were consistently the most stolen cargo globally in 2025. However, almost all goods are now at risk of theft, with car parts, e-bikes, electronics, cosmetics, clothing, pharmaceuticals and metals (such as copper) all being targeted.

Evolving security risk landscape

While cargo theft is not a new problem, it is a growing threat to supply chains, and a risk that is becoming more challenging for businesses to navigate. According to Europol, serious and organized crime is evolving at an unprecedented pace, exploiting geopolitical instability and new technologies to expand its reach. The average value of stolen cargo doubled in Q3 2025 as organized crime groups used more sophisticated tactics to target high-value shipments, according to CargoNet.

Technology has emerged as a key enabler of cargo theft. Criminals are using social engineering – enhanced by artificial intelligence - to gather intelligence, falsify documents and impersonate real individuals and companies. Cyber tactics are also being employed, as criminals use phishing emails and malware to infiltrate IT systems, accessing shipment details and documentation in order to steal or redirect cargo.

Rise of strategic theft

While the majority of cargo theft continues to be from vehicles and warehouses, recent years have seen a significant shift to so-called strategic theft, where criminals use information, deception and technology to steal cargo. According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), strategic theft accounted for 25% cargo theft in 2023, up from 8.9% in 2022 and just 1.4% in 2021.

A new phenomenon is the rise in fictitious pickup or fake carrier thefts, where criminals impersonate a legitimate carrier and trick shippers or brokers into handing over the cargo. In some cases, criminals use a fraudulent entity to secure a consignment and contract a legitimate carrier who unwittingly facilitates the theft of the cargo. In December 2025, a $400,000 shipment of lobster was stolen in Massachusetts after a driver used fake ID and documentation to pose as a legitimate freight carrier. A deceptive pickup at a facility near Schiphol airport in the Netherlands in October resulted in the theft of electronics valued at €15.5 million.

Shifting gears

The emergence of strategic theft is a wake-up call to manufacturers and logistics companies for the need to better understand security risks and put appropriate measures in place to protect their supply chains.

Western countries, in particular, are proving an easy target for cargo theft and fraud. In contrast to Latin America and South Africa – where security reflects already high levels of cargo theft risk – the security cultures in Europe and North America have evolved in a comparatively low-risk and trusting environment. Going forward, individuals and organizations will need to be more skeptical, especially when dealing with unfamiliar persons or third parties. Awareness and training are also key, and verification, authentication and due diligence are critical areas to focus on, especially at the point where cargo is exchanged.

Security risk should also be managed holistically, with actions implemented across the various functions and stakeholder groups. Ideally, companies should have an overarching process that aims to prevent criminals from obtaining information and manipulating data and/or procedures throughout the logistics chain. For example, robust cyber hygiene is critical, while restricting information to a need-to-know basis within the supply chain can help limit the leakage of sensitive information on consignments.

Intelligence sharing

Organizations and their employees need to stay vigilant, staying informed about theft trends and tactics. However, under-reporting remains a challenge for mitigation. In many cases, companies do not report incidents of cargo theft to authorities or their insurers. Even when incidents are reported, categorization and definitions are not granular, and key facts are not recorded in detail (just 53% of all logistic service providers report all cargo theft to law enforcement, according to ATRI).

Greater transparency, granular data and intelligence sharing would help identify hotspots and potential vulnerabilities in supply chains, and support more informed decisions and mitigation. There are various tips, guidelines and standards available to risk managers, such as TAPA standards for warehousing, transport, parking, cyber and the use of freight brokers. Insurers are also a good source of intelligence and are able to disseminate information on cargo security risks and tactics, as well as advise on mitigation actions - Zurich, for example, has provided clients with training and advice on how to tackle fictitious pick up fraud.

Security culture needed

Today, businesses operate in a world of disruption, from geopolitical threats to cyber incidents and extreme weather events. Unfortunately, organized crime groups see this as an opportunity, and are refining their methods to take advantage.

Failure to adopt a more security-minded approach now could see criminals establish a business model of cargo theft that would threaten much higher costs and disruption for supply chains in the long term.

Originally published in Commercial Risk on January 26, 2026.