Our view on
Economics & Markets
Macroeconomics and movements in financial markets impact many aspects of our lives. Having a well-informed view of what could transpire can help mitigate the risks we face and uncover profitable opportunities.
Our most recent publications
July 21, 2025
Weekly Macro & Markets View, Week 30
-
Japan’s LDP-Komeito coalition
loses control of the upper house in
Sunday’s election, further
weakening Prime Minister Ishiba
The outcome has increased the risk of policy gridlock, especially amid ongoing trade negotiations with the US and growing calls for fiscal expansion driven by the opposition’s demands for tax cuts. -
In the US, headline inflation
accelerates to 2.7% YoY, with core
CPI picking up to 2.9% YoY
The pickup in inflation is roughly in line with expectations and emphasises the Fed’s challenge in choosing the rate path during the months ahead. -
China's Q2 GDP grows 5.2% YoY,
driven largely by resilient exports,
while domestic demand remains
underwhelming
Attention will now turn to the upcoming Politburo meeting, where more fiscal support appears to be on the table, but we think the scale will remain rather modest.
July 09, 2025
Mid-year Outlook 2025: Living in a Land of Confusion
A profound first half of the year has seen many of the accepted norms of the prevailing world order shaken as the new US administration follows through on election pledges to ‘Make America Great Again’. In some cases, friends have become foes, spats with neighbours have flared up, and tariffs have dominated the narrative. Geopolitics have vied for top billing, as wars have raged, while debt sustainability has become a broader concern. Financial markets have been volatile, with equity bear markets encountered before recoveries pushed many stock markets to record highs. US exceptionalism, so heavily embraced at the end of last year, is being questioned with the mighty dollar falling sharply. As we piece together a new jigsaw puzzle for the remainder of the year, what is clear is that we are all now living in a land of confusion.
July 01, 2025
Monthly Investment Insights
Key developments
- US equities hit new highs, supported by positive developments in trade and geopolitics
- Economic data hold up as the impact of tariffs on inflation has been limited so far, leading to increased expectations of Fed rate cuts
- Government bond yields fall, helped by receding inflation concerns and a softening growth outlook; Eurozone peripheral spreads reach new tights
- Corporate bond spreads tighten, reapproaching historical lows, most notably in US Investment Grade
Explore publications
Explore our publications
Weekly Macro & Markets View
Designed to give clear interpretation of the previous week’s macroeconomic and financial market developments. This publication represents how Zurich sees the financial landscape evolving on a week-by-week basis.
Monthly Investment Insights
Structured to give a succinct view of the investment outlook and economic prospects for the coming months. Focus is on key developments from an investment perspective, with a tactical view presented on the major asset classes of equities, credit and government bonds.
Inflation Focus
A quarterly publication, conveying the most likely outlook for inflation over the subsequent 12-24 months. Global and regional views are provided, detailing the driving forces behind the outlook. Point forecasts are offered for the major coverage areas, with short-term moves and pressures also identified.
Topical Thoughts
Investigative research on specific issues that affect the business environment, with expert thoughts and opinions provided on an ad hoc basis.
Economic and Market Outlook
With a 12 months focus, this publication is designed as a reference document for multiple user groups. It is segmented by region and provides in-depth coverage of both economic and financial market fundamentals, as well as the underlying trends that are observed.
Mid-Year Outlook
An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the months ahead are likely to unfold.
Videos and Podcasts
To compliment some publications, a series of short videos and, in the case of Topical Thoughts and the Economic and Market Outlook, more detailed podcasts are available.
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