Economic & Market Outlook

As a new year beckons, Zurich’s MSME team share views on how the year is likely to unfold region by region, the key issues to be overcome, and what investors should be prepared for.

Economic and Markets Outlook 2024

Skating on thin ice

Global growth is falling and is substantially below trend, yet 2023 has proven surprisingly resilient with the US economy managing to circumvent a much touted recession. Financial markets are embracing good news, not least of which has been plunging inflation, but cracks and fissures are increasingly evident in both economies and financial markets. With another war in the Middle East dragging on, the biting effects of elevated funding costs taking hold, and a year of critical elections ahead, risks abound – yet few are priced. While investors may be right in skating onwards against a perceived rose-tinted backdrop, we suspect that from a government, corporate and household perspective, challenges and volatility will prevail. Consequently, 2024 may be a year of skating on thin ice.

Economic and Market Outlook 2024: Skating on thin ice

Global growth is falling and is substantially below trend, yet 2023 has proven surprisingly resilient with the US economy managing to circumvent a much touted recession.

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Outlook publications past years

Economics & Markets Outlook, 2023

Down but not out

The landscape will shift in the coming year, with a number of trends reversing course and markets taking on new direction. Growth and inflation are expected to be materially lower, with a global recession in the months ahead, corporate profits will be less and margins compress, while policy rates are expected to moderate following record hikes this year.
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Economics & Markets Outlook, 2022

Back to basics

Societies have shown resolve and ingenuity in adapting to the pandemic. Medical science has astonished, while a remarkable combination of monetary and fiscal initiatives resurrected economies in a way and on a scale few thought possible. However, imbalances and opacity now prevail, meaning 2022 needs a shift in focus back to basics.
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Economics & Markets Outlook, 2021

Great Expectations

The misery inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic defined the passing year, accelerating trends and distorting imbalance yet further. Vaccine development marks an inflection point, giving hope that some semblance of normality will return and allowing plans to be made with spending and investment to follow. 2021 brings great expectations, though the path ahead will be arduous.
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Economics & Markets Outlook, 2020

Fasten seatbelts

As central banks try to avoid economic stall speed and fight the crosswinds of trade uncertainty, manufacturing contraction and political turmoil, it’s time to fasten seatbelts and prepare for what could be a bumpy landing for the global economy and financial markets.
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Economics & Markets Outlook, 2019

Choppy waters

2019 is likely to be the ebb tide of the economic cycle rather than its demise, with slowing global growth, benign inflation and low bond yields. However, the year will host a number of unpredictable but critical political and geopolitical events, creating choppy waters for investors and policymakers to navigate.
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Economics & Markets Outlook, 2017

High Tide

2018 is expected to mark high tide in terms of the global expansion, with all boats being lifted as growth exceeds trend. Robust earnings and still generous liquidity provisioning should sustain investor enthusiasm. The biggest challenge is likely to be central bank policy as the focus shifts to tapering stimulus despite inflation missing targets.
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