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Economics & Markets

Macroeconomics and movements in financial markets impact many aspects of our lives. Having a well-informed view of what could transpire can help mitigate the risks we face and uncover profitable opportunities.

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July 23, 2024

Topical Thoughts: Why Japan’s consumers are downbeat

Both official statistics and anecdotal evidence suggest that Japan’s consumer confidence has deteriorated. We discuss some of the reasons why below, but suspect that circumstances should improve, contributing to a gradual recovery going forward.

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July 22, 2024

Weekly Macro & Markets View, Week 30

Giving in to rising pressure, Joe Biden withdraws from the 2024 presidential race.
Financial markets have so far shown a muted reaction as Biden’s decision was not unexpected and Donald Trump still has a substantial lead in polls and prediction markets.
The ECB kept policy rates unchanged at their meeting last week, in line with market expectations, as they remain in a gradual policy easing cycle.
We think the ECB are in a new phase, where discussions are around when and how much to cut by – not if to cut further. We continue to see easing in September and December.
China’s Third Plenum policy targets were very general in nature, focusing on ‘high quality development’
The Plenum was followed by today’s policy rate cut by the PBoC, which was taken positively by H-share investors

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July 04, 2024

Mid-year Outlook 2024: An uneasy calm

Despite Covid becoming a distant nightmare to most of us, the impact on the global economy remains profound. Taking stock at the mid-point of the year highlights how the excesses and distortions are still being digested, in a period that we would characterise as the ‘great normalisation’. An economic rebalancing is underway, with inflation and now interest rates falling and every data release commanding attention. It seems all too easy to look past war, geopolitical conflict and political change and embrace each tick lower in inflation as the key to prosperity and well-being. Financial markets are in rude health, with stocks up and credit spreads tight, and the US tech goliaths are vying for the title as the world’s most valuable company. While global growth and financial market prospects look to be good, an uneasy calm is present as fragilities linger in the shadows.

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Weekly Macro & Markets View

Designed to give clear interpretation of the previous week’s macroeconomic and financial market developments. This publication represents how Zurich sees the financial landscape evolving on a week-by-week basis.

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Monthly Investment Insights

Structured to give a succinct view of the investment outlook and economic prospects for the coming months. Focus is on key developments from an investment perspective, with a tactical view presented on the major asset classes of equities, credit and government bonds.

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Inflation Focus

A quarterly publication, conveying the most likely outlook for inflation over the subsequent 12-24 months. Global and regional views are provided, detailing the driving forces behind the outlook. Point forecasts are offered for the major coverage areas, with short-term moves and pressures also identified.

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Topical Thoughts

Investigative research on specific issues that affect the business environment, with expert thoughts and opinions provided on an ad hoc basis.

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Economic and Market Outlook

With a 12 months focus, this publication is designed as a reference document for multiple user groups. It is segmented by region and provides in-depth coverage of both economic and financial market fundamentals, as well as the underlying trends that are observed.

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