Mid-Year Outlook

An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the subsequent 12 months are likely to unfold.

Threading the needle

The first half of the year saw a number of cross currents at play, yet we close the period with economic growth having been resilient, headline inflation plunging, a systemic banking crisis averted, and equity markets back in bull-market territory. This is despite core inflation proving considerably more troublesome than expected and global policy rates powering relentlessly higher. Can the central banks thread the policy needle and maintain the expansion while taming inflation, or will the delayed impact of spiking rates mean that activity is like Wile E. Coyote in the Road Runner cartoons, having run off the cliff but yet to plunge?

Mid-Year Outlook 2023: Threading the needle

Video, 05:03min

As we pass the midpoint of the year, can the central banks thread the policy needle and maintain the expansion while taming inflation, or is recession beckoning following the most aggressive global rate hikes on record? Our Zurich Mid-year Outlook takes a view.

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Mid-Year Outlook 2023

Working harder to stay standing

The mid-year outlook by our Market Strategy and Macroeconomics team cites a number of powerful cross currents at play in global markets. Economic growth has been resilient so far this year, due to strong services activity and buoyant consumer spending helped by full employment in many regions. But a deeply persistent inverted U.S. yield curve signals scepticism about the enduring strength of conditions.

Mid-Year Outlook publications past years

Mid-Year Outlook 2023

Threading the needle

The first half of the year saw a number of cross currents at play, yet we close the period with economic growth having been resilient, headline inflation plunging, a systemic banking crisis averted, and equity markets back in bull-market territory.
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Mid-Year Outlook 2022

Twin Peaks

As we hit the midpoint of the year, the tempered optimism for the global economy that we had six months ago has been undermined by war in Europe and mass Covid-related lockdowns in China.
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Mid-Year Update 2021

As good as it gets

The global recovery has been remarkable on many levels, not least in terms of the power of science and the resilience of societies. Mass vaccination and highly supportive fiscal and monetary policy has catapulted economic activity to a level few thought possible at the start of the year.
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Mid-Year Update 2020

Phoenix from the flames

A global pandemic and self-imposed lockdowns lead to the sharpest contraction in global growth since the Great Depression. Yet a truly profound policy response has prevented a health and economic crisis becoming a financial crisis. However, the recovery will still leave a large hole in global output and a greater dependency on support mechanisms.
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Mid-Year Update 2019

Tug of war

Slowing global growth encounters a new round of monetary stimulus
Most financial assets soared in the first half of the year as investors priced in an era of renewed monetary stimulus against a backdrop of benign inflation.
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Mid-year update 2018

Shifting Sands

Economic conditions are robust and growth is expected to remain above trend, while financial markets are in good shape, with upside for equities. The global landscape has become more fragile, however, as shifting sands are evident. From increasing populism and mounting trade tensions, to the spread of financial tightening, risks have risen.
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Mid-year update 2017

Not the time for complacency

A broad-based and deepening global economic expansion is panning out largely as we had thought. Inflation, however, has been weaker than expected, and with underlying vulnerabilities still evident in most regions, the current cyclical upswing needs to be a catalyst for change rather than a time for relaxation.
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