Mid-year Outlook
An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the subsequent 12 months are likely to unfold.
Making hay while the sun shines
The first half of the year has certainly lived up to the title of our optimistic 2026 outlook publication: Sunny with blustery showers. Despite a particularly severe and blustery ‘shower’ in the form of a hugely disruptive war with Iran, the past six months have been characterised by a series of records and firsts. While around 20% of oil and gas supplies were stranded in the Gulf, the global economy has continued to prosper. Trade is robust as societies are doing what they always do: finding ways to overcome obstacles. One of the largest synchronised capital spending cycles in history is being driven by a scramble to increase investment in defence, renewable energy and, of course, AI. Despite the spike in energy prices, capex is bolstering economic growth and has pushed financial markets to record highs while the largest IPO in history, SpaceX, made founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire! Although there are still risks, and record corporate issuance, higher policy rates and geopolitical disruption will ultimately have consequences, we believe the current economic and market environment is one for making hay while the sun shines.
Mid-year Outlook 2026: Making hay while the sun shines
Video, 07:36min
As we look into the second half of the year, we continue to have an optimistic perspective on both the macroeconomic backdrop and financial markets. The capital spending boom continues, with defence, renewable energy and AI spending bolstering economic conditions and driving technology company earnings and profitability higher. While risks around geopolitics, inflation and policy rates are real, we believe the current environment is one for making hay while the sun shines
Video Podcasts
In part 1 the MSME team members discuss their views and forecasts for the economic environment across regions in the year ahead and detail how they came to their conclusions. In part 2 they share their thoughts on financial markets, focusing on regional and asset class variations expected in the year ahead.
Mid-year Outlook publications past years
Mid-year Outlook 2025
Living in a Land of Confusion
A profound first half of the year has seen many of the accepted norms of the prevailing world order shaken as the new US administration follows through on election pledges to ‘Make America Great Again’. In some cases, friends have become foes, spats with neighbours have flared up, and tariffs have dominated the narrative.
Mid-year Outlook 2024
An uneasy calm
Taking stock at the mid-point of the year, we are in a period that we would characterise as ‘the great normalisation’, with growth rebalancing, inflation moving lower and interest rates in decline. While global growth and financial market prospects look to be good, an uneasy calm is present as fragilities linger in the shadows. Get our take on whether this is sustainable, or if some chill winds are building.
Mid-year Outlook 2023
Threading the needle
The first half of the year saw a number of cross currents at play, yet we close the period with economic growth having been resilient, headline inflation plunging, a systemic banking crisis averted, and equity markets back in bull-market territory.
Mid-year Outlook 2022
Twin Peaks
As we hit the midpoint of the year, the tempered optimism for the global economy that we had six months ago has been undermined by war in Europe and mass Covid-related lockdowns in China.
Mid-year Outlook 2021
As good as it gets
The global recovery has been remarkable on many levels, not least in terms of the power of science and the resilience of societies. Mass vaccination and highly supportive fiscal and monetary policy has catapulted economic activity to a level few thought possible at the start of the year.
Mid-year Outlook 2020
Phoenix from the flames
A global pandemic and self-imposed lockdowns lead to the sharpest contraction in global growth since the Great Depression. Yet a truly profound policy response has prevented a health and economic crisis becoming a financial crisis. However, the recovery will still leave a large hole in global output and a greater dependency on support mechanisms.
Mid-year Outlook 2019
Tug of war
Slowing global growth encounters a new round of monetary stimulus. Most financial assets soared in the first half of the year as investors priced in an era of renewed monetary stimulus against a backdrop of benign inflation.
Mid-year Outlook 2018
Shifting Sands
Economic conditions are robust and growth is expected to remain above trend, while financial markets are in good shape, with upside for equities. The global landscape has become more fragile, however, as shifting sands are evident. From increasing populism and mounting trade tensions, to the spread of financial tightening, risks have risen.
Mid-year Outlook 2017
Not the time for complacency
A broad-based and deepening global economic expansion is panning out largely as we had thought. Inflation, however, has been weaker than expected, and with underlying vulnerabilities still evident inmost regions, the current cyclical upswing needs to be a catalyst for change rather than a time for relaxation.
Explore our publications
Weekly Macro & Markets View
Designed to give clear interpretation of the previous week’s macroeconomic and financial market developments. This publication represents how Zurich sees the financial landscape evolving on a week-by-week basis.
Monthly Investment Insights
Structured to give a succinct view of the investment outlook and economic prospects for the coming months. Focus is on key developments from an investment perspective, with a tactical view presented on the major asset classes of the Group, in particular equities, credit and government bonds.
Inflation Focus
A quarterly publication, conveying the most likely outlook for inflation over the subsequent 12-24 months. Global and regional views are provided, detailing the driving forces behind the outlook. Point forecasts are offered for the major coverage areas, with short-term moves and pressures also identified.
Topical Thoughts
Investigative research on specific issues that affect the business environment, with expert thoughts and opinions provided on an ad hoc basis.
Economics & Markets Outlook
With a 12 months focus, this publication is designed as a reference document for multiple user groups. It provides the foundations for the financial market and economic views at Group level. It is segmented by region and provides in-depth coverage of both economic and financial market fundamentals, as well as the underlying trends that are observed.
Real Estate Outlook
A publication from Zurich Real Estate Investments that shares valuable perspectives from our global experts.
Videos and Podcasts
To compliment some publications, a series of short videos and, in the case of Topical Thoughts and the Economic and Market Outlook, more detailed podcasts are available.
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