Mid-year Outlook

Mid-year Outlook

An update on the Economic & Market Outlook is provided, gauging developments and projecting how the subsequent 12 months are likely to unfold.

Living in a Land of Confusion

A profound first half of the year has seen many of the accepted norms of the prevailing world order shaken as the new US administration follows through on election pledges to ‘Make America Great Again’. In some cases, friends have become foes, spats with neighbours have flared up, and tariffs have dominated the narrative. Geopolitics have vied for top billing, as wars have raged, while debt sustainability has become a broader concern. Financial markets have been volatile, with equity bear markets encountered before recoveries pushed many stock markets to record highs. US exceptionalism, so heavily embraced at the end of last year, is being questioned with the mighty dollar falling sharply. As we piece together a new jigsaw puzzle for the remainder of the year, what is clear is that we are all now living in a land of confusion.

Mid-year Outlook 2025: Living in a Land of Confusion

Video, 05:44min

As we pass the mid-point of the year, it has been a remarkable period in which many of the political and geopolitical norms have been shaken. Tariffs dominate the narrative, while equity market recovered from a sharp bear market to post record highs. It certainly seems that we are living in a land of confusion. Find out our take on how the second half of the year could develop and where the risks and opportunities are.

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Video Podcasts

In part 1 the MSME team members discuss their views and forecasts for the economic environment across regions in the year ahead and detail how they came to their conclusions. In part 2 they share their thoughts on financial markets, focusing on regional and asset class variations expected in the year ahead.

Mid-year Outlook publications past years

Mid-year Outlook 2024
An uneasy calm
Taking stock at the mid-point of the year, we are in a period that we would characterise as ‘the great normalisation’, with growth rebalancing, inflation moving lower and interest rates in decline. While global growth and financial market prospects look to be good, an uneasy calm is present as fragilities linger in the shadows. Get our take on whether this is sustainable, or if some chill winds are building.
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Mid-year Outlook 2023
Threading the needle
The first half of the year saw a number of cross currents at play, yet we close the period with economic growth having been resilient, headline inflation plunging, a systemic banking crisis averted, and equity markets back in bull-market territory.
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Mid-year Outlook 2022
Twin Peaks
As we hit the midpoint of the year, the tempered optimism for the global economy that we had six months ago has been undermined by war in Europe and mass Covid-related lockdowns in China.
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Mid-year Outlook 2021
As good as it gets
The global recovery has been remarkable on many levels, not least in terms of the power of science and the resilience of societies. Mass vaccination and highly supportive fiscal and monetary policy has catapulted economic activity to a level few thought possible at the start of the year.
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Mid-year Outlook 2020
Phoenix from the flames
A global pandemic and self-imposed lockdowns lead to the sharpest contraction in global growth since the Great Depression. Yet a truly profound policy response has prevented a health and economic crisis becoming a financial crisis. However, the recovery will still leave a large hole in global output and a greater dependency on support mechanisms.
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Mid-year Outlook 2019
Tug of war
Slowing global growth encounters a new round of monetary stimulus. Most financial assets soared in the first half of the year as investors priced in an era of renewed monetary stimulus against a backdrop of benign inflation.
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Mid-year Outlook 2018
Shifting Sands
Economic conditions are robust and growth is expected to remain above trend, while financial markets are in good shape, with upside for equities. The global landscape has become more fragile, however, as shifting sands are evident. From increasing populism and mounting trade tensions, to the spread of financial tightening, risks have risen.
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Mid-year Outlook 2017
Not the time for complacency
A broad-based and deepening global economic expansion is panning out largely as we had thought. Inflation, however, has been weaker than expected, and with underlying vulnerabilities still evident inmost regions, the current cyclical upswing needs to be a catalyst for change rather than a time for relaxation.
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