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Inflation Focus - Q1

What’s happening on the inflation front, both globally and locally, what are the key drivers and how are central banks likely to respond?

Key Points

  • Inflation has been contained globally, but surging oil prices will disrupt further progress near term, driving headline inflation higher
  • Growth should remain resilient, supported by fiscal expansion and AI investment, though rising oil prices pose a downside risk
  • Labour markets are soft, helping to contain wage growth and a broadening out of price pressures
  • The global rate cutting cycle is disrupted, with central banks remaining vigilant and ready to take action should it be needed

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