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Inflation Focus - Q1

What’s happening on the inflation front, both globally and locally, what are the key drivers and how are central banks likely to respond?

Key Points

  • Inflation falls further, but the pace of improvement has slowed and services inflation remains elevated
  • Goods price inflation has already falllen sharply, and a further steep decline is not expected
  • Inflation targets are within reach, and central banks signal that rate cuts will soon be forthcoming
  • Dovish tilt by central banks reduces recession risk, but it remains critical that focus on inflation is maintained
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