There could be 1.2 billion climate refugees by 2050. Here’s what you need to know

Climate migration is devastating people’s lives. Imagine losing your home or livelihood due to a flood. Going hungry because of a failed harvest or drought. Or being forced to flee your home due to desertification, rising sea levels or a lack of clean drinking water.

This is the reality for millions and millions of climate refugees who live on the frontlines of the climate crisis. For them, climate change is real, and it is happening now. And as the threat of climate change increases globally, the number of climate migrants will grow exponentially.

According to UNHCR, the UN’s refugee agency, an annual average of 21.5 million people were forcibly displaced each year by weather-related events – such as floods, storms, wildfires and extreme temperatures – between 2008 and 2016. This climate migration is expected to surge in coming decades with forecasts from international thinktank the IEP predicting that 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to climate change and natural disasters.

“Climate change knows no borders,” says Amar Rahman, Global Head of Climate Resilience at Zurich Resilience Solutions, speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative during Climate Week NYC. “Collective action is needed immediately to mitigate its effects, especially on those most vulnerable.”

Who are climate refugees?

The term “climate refugees” has been used since 1985 when UN Environment Programme (UNEP) expert Essam El-Hinnawi defined climate refugees – also called climate or environmental migrants – as people who have been “forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of marked environmental disruption.” This causes some confusion as “climate refugees” is not a term officially recognized in international law – and that most climate-related displacement happens within countries.

And nor is there a clear definition. For instance, when two category 4 hurricanes hit Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador in November 2020, people poured across the border into Mexico and headed towards the U.S. as torrential rains and landslides meant they lost their homes, livelihoods and access to clean water.

In this case, the cause and effect are clear. It is easy to see how unlivable conditions in their home countries caused by extreme weather led people to cross borders as climate refugees.

But Rahman believes the definition should apply to a much broader range of people. Namely, “anyone who has been impacted by disruption in their society that could somehow directly or indirectly be related to short- or long-term change in the environment.”

This means acknowledging that climate change does not just pose a threat by causing immediate harm to people and infrastructure, it is also a long-term danger that can slowly destabilize societies and economies. Take for instance sea-level rise. Over the past 30 years, the number of people living in coastal areas at high risk of rising sea levels has increased from 160 million to 260 million, 90 percent of whom are from poor developing countries and small island states.

Rahman explains the situation is made worse as climate risks are interconnected and can cause a domino effect. “When temperature rises in a country, for instance, it can reduce water availability and water quality. This may increase the spread of disease and raise the likelihood of drought leading to crop failures that will reduce incomes and food supplies. All this can potentially lead to social disruption and political instability.”

How conflict exacerbates climate migration

This domino effect was felt in Syria, where the desertification of formerly fertile farming land between 2006 and 2010 meant crop yields plummeted, 800,000 people lost their income and 85 percent of the country’s livestock died. As people lost their livelihoods, food prices soared, and 1.5 million rural workers moved to the city to find jobs. Those left behind facing poverty were an easy target for recruiters from the Islamic State.

These are not the only factors that led to the Syrian civil war, with the Arab Spring and strict restrictions from the Syrian government playing a key role. But societal issues caused by climate change worked to exacerbate existing tensions. The result was a conflict that fueled the world’s worst refugee crisis in decades with around 6.6 million Syrians (roughly a quarter of the population) forced to flee their country.

The experience in Syria is sadly not unusual as there is a strong correlation between countries most vulnerable to climate change and those experiencing conflict or violence. According to the UNHCR, 95 percent of all conflict displacements in 2020 occurred in countries vulnerable or highly vulnerable to climate change. It’s why the UNHCR considers climate change as not just a direct driver of displacement, but a “threat multiplier” that magnifies the impact of other factors such as poverty and tensions relating to dwindling resources, which can create conditions that can lead to conflict and displacement.

The good news is that international governments are starting to recognize climate migration as an issue that needs to be tackled. In November 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden released the Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration – representing the first time the U.S. Government has officially recognized a link between climate change and migration.

The report recognizes that climate migration can have significant implications for international security, instability, conflict and geopolitics. And it calls for the development of strategies that would allow the humane, safe, and proactive management of climate migration flows.

How can we help climate refugees?

Besides fighting climate change as a priority, one way to tackle climate migration is to create economic opportunity in societies threatened by environmental change. For example, in Bangladesh floods caused by cyclones have increased the salinity of 53 percent of farmland. This means farmers are unable to grow their normal crops, which poses a deadly threat to communities who rely on agriculture to survive.

However, farmers have been able to adapt to the new conditions with support from Dutch research project Salt Solution and local NGOs who are teaching them to grow salt-tolerant crops, including potatoes, carrots, cabbages and coriander. So far 10,000 farmers have received training, resulting in two to three extra harvests per year.

Bangladesh is also home to almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar, many of whom live in refugee camps. To prevent these political refugees becoming climate refugees, the UNHRC is working with local partners to plant fast-growing trees in parts of refugee camps that are prone to landslides during monsoons to stabilize the ground.

This all requires investment. But at COP28 in Dubai in November 2023, wealthy countries pledged a combined total of over USD 700 million into the “Loss and Damage Fund,” which aims to help developing countries exposed to the adverse effects of climate change. This Fund could help people who are forcibly displaced due to climate-related issues, but the funding pledge was considered far short of the annual USD 400 billion that one NGO claims is needed.

Protected status for climate refugees

Another issue is protected status. Most experts argue climate change refugees need access to the same protected status offered to other refugees, such as those who have escaped conflict.

In March 2018, the UN Human Rights Council found that many climate refugees do not fit the definition of “refugees” and called them “the world’s forgotten victims.” This means they cannot access legal protections to their human rights, which could protect them from threats like deportation.

To rectify this, governments and legal bodies must reframe conditions caused by climate change as a threat to human rights and recognize the deadly threat that climate refugees face – even if that threat is not always as immediate as the dangers faced by refugees fleeing war.

Even the White House report says current legal instruments to protect refugees “do not readily lend themselves to protect those individuals displaced by the impacts of climate change, especially those that address migration across borders.” One of its key legislative suggestions is for the U.S. to expand use of its migrant protection program known as Temporary Protected Status.

But the ultimate solution is to curtail climate change by achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement to limit temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius (°C) and ideally to 1.5°C.

“Society is measured by how it treats its most vulnerable,” adds Rahman. “We need to take every measure – as policy makers, corporations and individuals – to fight climate change and protect those that are the first to be impacted by its effects.”